Four questions came up at showings this month and the answers I actually gave people while we stood in driveways. I'll run through them the way I ran through them then.

First one, and I got some version of this at every single showing: is the Hill Country going down?

Depends where you point. Fredericksburg is softer than people want to admit. Redfin's data for the three months ending August 2026 has the median sale price at $445K, down 1.6% year over year. That's not a crash. That's a market that took the top off. Same town, Realtor.com has median listing price at $711K as of this month — which tells you exactly what's happening. Sellers are still asking Fredericksburg-in-2022 prices and buyers are closing at 2024 prices. The gap between list and sale is where the negotiation lives right now.

New Braunfels is a different animal. Resideline is tracking 843 closed sales over the last six months at a $349,990 median. That's basically the Texas statewide median ($360K per Realtor.com as of Sept 15). New Braunfels has held because it's got volume, it's got jobs, it's got I-35, and it's got new builds priced to move. Boerne sits at $497,315 median across 185 closed sales — smaller market, higher price, roughly flat.

So the honest answer at the showing: Fredericksburg buyers have leverage they didn't have 18 months ago. New Braunfels buyers have selection but not much price movement. Boerne is Boerne.

The water thing everyone is asking about

Second question, mostly from people relocating: what's going on with all these subdivision fights?

Two active ones worth knowing. Lennar's proposed 2,700-home Guajolote Ranch near Helotes has been in a slugfest since January over Edwards Aquifer impacts, wastewater permits, and the Camp Bullis buffer zone. Then in Kerrville, a proposed 500-home Town Creek development is drawing the same complaints — water supply, traffic, flood risk. MySA has been covering both.

I'm going to present this neutrally because I have clients on both sides of it. Developers argue the growth is coming either way and planned density beats sprawl. Residents argue the aquifer and the two-lane roads can't take it. Both have real points.

What matters for a buyer: if you're looking anywhere within a few miles of a proposed large subdivision, pull the permit files before you write an offer. Not because the development will kill your value — it might actually help it — but because the road, well, and traffic reality of your daily life five years from now is inside those documents. I've had two clients this year change their minds about a lot after reading the wastewater permit application on a neighboring parcel.

Third question, and this one came from a couple looking at 5 acres off 281 north of Bulverde: how much of this land can I actually build on?

Less than the listing says. Almost always. The Hill Country has caliche near the surface, limestone outcrops, steep slopes, and karst features — sinkholes, small caves, drainage that goes sideways. I've walked 5-acre parcels where 1.5 acres were realistically buildable once you accounted for the 25%+ grade on one side and a floodplain corner on the other. Nobody puts that in the MLS description.

The other thing nobody puts in the description: septic. If you're outside a service area, you're almost certainly on an aerobic treatment unit because of the limestone and clay. Budget $17,000 to $26,000 all-in with the site eval, design, permits, and first year's mandatory maintenance contract. Then $700–$1,500 a year to keep it going. That's a real line item and I've watched buyers get to the closing table without ever hearing that number from anyone. I wrote a longer piece on Bulverde-area lots that gets into the slope-and-soil stuff too.

Fourth question, from a guy who wanted to buy a short-term rental in Fredericksburg: is now the time?

Maybe. Fredericksburg STR inventory is up, weekend bookings are still strong through the wineries on 290 and the traffic pulled in by Enchanted Rock and Luckenbach, but you're competing with a lot more listings than you were three years ago. The softening sale prices actually help you on entry. What kills the returns is buying at 2022 comps and running the P&L at 2026 occupancy. Underwrite conservatively. Assume 55% occupancy, not 70%. If the numbers still work, you've got a deal. If they only work at 70%, walk.

One thing I'll defend at a BBQ: I don't think Fredericksburg is a bad long-term hold. It's just priced like Aspen right now and buyers finally noticed. The wine road, the Main Street shops, the peach loop — none of that is going anywhere. The math just has to reset.

A few smaller things from the week that don't deserve their own paragraph but matter:

Rates are what they are. Stop waiting for the number in your head. Every buyer who waited from spring till now paid more, not less, in Boerne and Canyon Lake. Fredericksburg is the exception where waiting has actually worked.

USDA financing still exists for a lot of the rural Hill Country and a lot of buyers don't know they qualify. 0% down on the right property. Ask your lender to run the eligibility map before you write off the down payment as your blocker.

If you're building custom on raw land, get an architect on the site walk before you close on the lot. Not after. Before. I've watched too many people buy a pretty view and then spend $40K in site prep they didn't budget for because the house wanted to sit somewhere the caliche wouldn't cooperate. Parker Design and Consulting does this early-stage siting work with buyers — parkerdesignconsult.com if it's useful.

Property search is over at collab-rt.com if you want to filter by acreage and actually pull the plats.

What's the next question. Send it. I'll answer it in the next one.

Data sourced from Resideline (New Braunfels and Boerne closed sales, six months ending September 2026), Redfin (Fredericksburg three months ending August 2026), Realtor.com (Fredericksburg and Texas listing data, September 2026), and MySA reporting on Guajolote Ranch and Town Creek. Verify current numbers with a local agent before acting.

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